The Washington, D.C. baby talk continues now creating concern in global markets. S&P's are weak overnight into the opening bell with the S&P's -15. The same themes are in place as last week. Utilities are important and start out on a sour note if UTIL stays under both the 483.53 and 485.90 levels this week. Since UTIL is under both levels, the market trap-door is open and a small flush is on tap for the opening bell. Keybot the Quant remains short through the market choppiness that is chewing up bulls and bears alike. It is typically best to sit tight and trade less through this whipsaw action. Other key areas and numbers the algorithm is tracking are JJC 40.13, XLF 20.01 and GTX 4889 so these metrics will steer the market ship today. Copper (JJC) and financials (XLF) should turn bearish after the bell which will create further broad market negativity.
The SPX is sitting at the strong 1691-1692 support to begin the week. The lower standard deviation band, described in this morning's chart is 1669 and rising. The 20-day MA resistance ceiling is 1695. The 50-day MA support floor is 1680. A failure at 1680 should set up a test of the 1669 level. If this fails, the 1661-1662 support would be targeted next. The 200 EMA on the SPX 60-minute chart is 1685-ish and begins on the bull side but at the bell the SPX should drop under 1685 to place the bears in charge. Watch the 1685 very closely since it is a key pivot point for bulls and bears today. The 8 MA is above the 34 MA on the SPX 30-minute chart signaling bullish markets ahead but watch for a negative 8/34 cross early today. The market bears must receive this negative 8/34 cross or they got nothing and will fold like a cheap suit.
Watch UTIL 483.53, 485.90, JJC 40.13, XLF 20.01 and GTX 4889 to determine market direction today. Are the dip-buyers losing their gumption? We find out just how loyal the dip-buyers are over the next hour or two. There is no significant data on tap today except for Consumer Credit at 3 PM. Q3 earnings season kicks off tomorrow with AA after the bell. Thus, in the absence of data and earnings, the politicians will send the markets to and fro as they stand at the podium pontificating their ongoing nonsense.
Note Added 2:05 PM: The SPX sits at 1685.11 not much of a surprise. The 200 EMA on the 60-minute is 1685.17 so the fight for bull or bear control continues at 1685. The 8 MA stabs down through the 34 MA on the SPX 30-minute but the 8 is already curling up and may create a positive 8/34 cross before the close. UTIL is under 483.61 and 485.90 creating market bearishness. Ditto XLF under 20.02. Ditto GTX under 4888. Bulls are hanging their hats on copper, however, with JJC above 40.19, which prevents the indexes from falling in earnest. TRIN is 0.76 which will help the bulls today. Note how price continues to remain inside the moving average bracket with the 20-day MA ceiling at 1695.51 and 50-day MA floor at 1679.68. Internal to this range is the 1685 pivot. So bulls win above 1685 and gallop to victory above 1696 on their way to 1700+. Bears win below 1685 and will crush the markets lower to 1669 if the 1680 level gives way again. Note how price bounced at 1674 today the top of that 1671-1674 gap that remains in play. Thus, a failure of 1680 leads to a test of 1674, then a test of 1669-1671, then further lower support at 1661-1662, then 1657. A bounce would be anticipated from one of these levels.
Note Added 2:27 PM: GTX 4888. The pivot from here tells a lot. Higher GTX and equities move higher, lower GTX and the bears push equities lower again. GTX 4889 ...... 4890 ...
Note Added 2:31 PM: GTX 4887. The circus continues. Watch GTX 4888 and SPX 1685.